11/27/2023 0 Comments Us oil production by year 2015The same cannot be said for heavy oil and bitumen production, as open pit mining is demonstrating cost escalation and resource base depletion, while in situ production approach has reached the limit of technological progress and production costs are mostly determined by external factors. For the rest of the world, the issue of kick starting LTO production lies as much in the fields of adapting the existing technologies, as overcoming economic, legislative and environmental barriers. Cost analysis of unconventional oil types has shown that Light Tight Oil (LTO) or shale oil still holds potential for technological and economical improvement, however, the revolutionary stage in development has probably already been passed in the US. And it is without a doubt that these resources will continue to play an important role in the future. * Corresponding author: oils have taken the global oil industry by storm and have secured an 8% share in the global liquid fuels production in under 20 years. The Department of Research of Energy Complex of Russia and the World, The Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Nagornaya st., 31, k.2, 117186Ĭenter for Energy Markets Studies, The Energy Institute of the Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia My projection of US oil production in 2023 is no more than 9.8-10.3 mbd.Nikita O. The reason has less to do with the most often mentioned excuse, namely capital discipline and overwhelmingly far more to do with the fact that the sweet and lucrative spots in the shale plays have already been exhausted forcing drillers to move to poorer and more costly to produce spots thus leading to a rise in production costs and declining production. Since then there has been frequent projections about a rise of shale oil production and a multitude of excuses why there has been none. It has never recovered since it was decimated by the pandemic in 2020. The EIA seems to work on the assumption that if its weekly figures were hyped, by the time the monthly figures are published, people would have forgotten the EIA’s initial hyped figures. Moreover, there is a difference of more than 1.0 million barrels a day (mbd) between the EIA’s weekly and monthly figures. Even the shale oil veteran Scott Shefield, Chief Executive of Pioneer Natural Resources has himself questioned them from time to time and criticized the EIA’s hype. Many respected experts including myself have questioned the EIA figures. If that trend continues into 2023, we may see a new oil production record.įigures of US oil production by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) are hyped. The second half of 2022 saw production levels right at the record level of 2019, and production did increase by half a million barrels per day during that period. Nevertheless, the 2019 record could be broken in 2023. However, that is still a far cry from the levels of 2014, when the rig count briefly exceeded 1,600. That was an increase of 140 rigs (29%) from the end of 2021, and nearly back to the ~680 rig level in the months preceding the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. However, the rate of increase is likely to be more like that of 2021-2022 than the very high production increases seen during the Obama and Trump Administrations.Īccording to the Baker Hughes Rig Count data, at the end of 2022 there were 620 rigs drilling for oil. But there was a decent bounce in 2022 to reach 11.85 million bpd.īarring one of those geopolitical events that seem all too common in recent years, 2023 oil production should come in ahead of 2022 production. That dragged the 2020 average down to 11.3 million bpd.Īlthough monthly numbers continued to recover into 2021, the annual average still came in slightly below 2020’s number at 11.25 million bpd. But by May 2020, oil production had plunged to 9.7 million bpd, and then began a slow recovery. If not for the Covid-19 pandemic, 2020 would have probably been higher as the monthly numbers reached 12.9 million bpd just before the pandemic impacted production. The yearly record thus far is 2019, when annual production reached 12.3 million barrels per day (bpd).
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